Periodic Updates – Seaford Macro

September 2023 update: are we headed for an autumn recession?

Wage growth outpaces inflation in USA, Canada and Japan G7, confirming what we previously called the Carl Lewis Effect. In this September update, we report little evidence of a wage-push spiral. Wage growth is not currently a primary driver of inflation. We are also sceptical of claims that the global economy is headed to an…

September 3, 2023Lindsay StirtonAnalysis, Periodic Updates

January 2023 update: The Carl Lewis effect

In our January Seaford Macro Update, we focus on inflation and wages in selected G7 countries. While inflation generally outpaces wages for the time being (meaning that real wages are negative), wage growth resembles the famously slow-starting sprinter who would nonetheless continue to gather pace after his rivals began to run out of steam. Likewise,…

January 23, 2023Lindsay StirtonAnalysis, Periodic Updates