We provide insight into key macroeconomic trends and risks that affect the global political and business environment

How I learned to stop worrying and welcome a housing crash

By John Rapley

It was a big mistake to ever sell housing as a good investment. Plot the long-term returns of property and stocks in the world’s most dynamic economies and you’ll see that it’s almost always a laggard.

Ramaphosa’s Last Chance

By John Rapley

South Africa’s embattled president, Cyril Ramaphosa, faces the challenge of his political career. 

We’ll never get back to low inflation, and we shouldn’t even try

By John Rapley

This week’s U.S. and British inflation reports continued recent trends across Western countries, with inflation pulling back from recent highs. While the news is unquestionably good, celebration may be premature. 

When it comes to China and Taiwan, the West should take a page out of its Ukraine playbook – don’t fight, but provide arms

By John Rapley

The game-theorists are furiously at work, mapping out decision-trees to assess what might happen if China invades Taiwan. Talk of a confrontation between China and the West presumes the two sides will come to blows. What if the alliance instead used the approach it has employed rather effectively in Ukraine?