We explore currents deep within the global political economy to better interpret the movements at the surface


We provide insight into key macroeconomic trends and risks that affect the global political and business environment.


We offer a distinctive blend of quantitative, historical, and socio-political analysis to explain the global macroeconomy.

Latest Analysis

The Macroeconomic Impact of Real Estate Prices​

Conventional models of inflation focus on demand conditions that result from changes in money supply. When money supply increases create asset-price inflation, such changes are typically regarded as outside the real economy. However we find evidence that suggests inflation in real estate prices can both underpin consumer-price inflation and inhibit the rate of economic growth.

Are We Headed for an Autumn Recession?​

Wage growth outpaces inflation in USA, Canada and Japan G7, confirming what we previously called the Carl Lewis Effect. In this September update, we report little evidence of a wage-push spiral. Wage growth is not currently a primary driver of inflation. We are also sceptical of claims that the global economy is headed to an autumn recession. If a recession occurs at all, it will likely be short and shallow.


We bring decades of experience in tracing the deeper structural, political and historical factors that shape economic action