In our January Seaford Macro Update, we focus on inflation and wages in selected G7 countries. While inflation generally outpaces wages for the time being (meaning that real wages are negative), wage growth resembles the famously slow-starting sprinter who would nonetheless continue to gather pace after his rivals began to run out of steam. Likewise,…
Britain faces a wave of strikes that has been likened to the 1979 ‘Winter of Discontent.’ Most industrial action is taking place in the public sector while what isn’t, is effectively quasi-public, like the railway strikes against private companies with government franchises. The principal issue is compensation, which in real terms has declined for most…
Central banks in advanced economies generally expect inflation to fall back down to about 2-3% in the next couple of years. However, the recent track-record of these forecasts has been spotty at best, and economists have increasingly struggled to account for both its persistence and the resilience of job markets even as economies slow. In…