September 2023 update: are we headed for an autumn recession?

Wage growth outpaces inflation in USA, Canada and Japan G7, confirming what we previously called the Carl Lewis Effect.

In this September update, we report little evidence of a wage-push spiral. Wage growth is not currently a primary driver of inflation.

We are also sceptical of claims that the global economy is headed to an autumn recession. If a recession occurs at all, it will likely be short and shallow.

Read the September Update.

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