We’ll never get back to low inflation, and we shouldn’t even try

In a column published yesterday in the Globe and Mail, I argue that the low price rises of the past three decades were achieved on the back of globalization and the cheap labour it made available. That trend is now reversing, and that is largely a good thing.

This week’s U.S. and British inflation reports continued recent trends across Western countries, with inflation pulling back from recent highs. Next week’s Canadian figures will probably bring similar holiday cheer. Thrilled that central banks appear to be winning the war on inflation, investors have started their celebrations early, launching year-end rallies in stock markets and driving bond rates down.

But while the news is unquestionably good, those celebrations may be premature. There’s a sting coming in inflation’s tail, and you can spot it in the bowels of the figures.

The column builds on our recent research brief on inflation, which you can download here.

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